The Republican Party's Thucydides Trap
After the party's midterm disaster, the Trump vs. DeSantis conflict is no longer theoretical. Its outcome will decide the party's electoral viability.
Since he left the White House, a steady debate has embroiled the vanguard of right-of-center voters and opinion makers: should President Trump attempt a return from his Mar-a-Lago exile or should he retire from active politics and cede the mantle of leadership to the next generation, headlined by his presumptive heir, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis? The Trump faction argued that the former President had unfinished business and touted his pre-pandemic policy successes along with his supposedly unique ability to get high turnout from working class and rural voters. The DeSantis faction argued that Trump had proven a poor leader in his final year in office, one who had turned Anthony Fauci into a household name and failed to provide law and order during the worst riots America had seen in 50 years. They also argued that Trump was toxic to independent and swing voters, especially in the important suburbs, and that for every vote Trump could theoretically gain in places like rural Pennsylvania or Georgia, he would lose at least one in suburbs like Cobb or Bucks County. In contrast, they claimed that the Florida Governor handled covid and its aftershocks well and would appeal to a broader coalition of voters, all the while displaying a remarkable ability to secure conservative economic and cultural wins. The Trump faction insisted that DeSantis had won his race against the now-infamous Andrew Gillum only because of the President’s help. The DeSantis faction conceded this point, especially for the 2018 gubernatorial primary, but equally insisted that times had changed dramatically. For disclosure, I was on the DeSantis side of the debate from the beginning. Up until the November 8th, 2022 midterm elections, the discussion remained theoretical. That is no longer the case. Tension had steadily brewed between the two former allies, but came to a head in the days before and after the midterms, as Trump and his acolytes sent direct warning shots over the head of the man he perceived as his greatest rival. So springs the Republican Party’s Thucydides Trap.
The political scientist Graham Allison proposed the Thucydides Trap (affiliate link) concept in 2012. The basis of the theory is that when a rising power threatens to displace the ruling power as the hegemon in its given sphere, war usually breaks out between them. Graham coined the term from a passage in The History of the Peloponnesian War (affiliate link), where the Greek historian Thucydides traced the origin of that conflict to the fear Sparta had of the rising Athenian Empire. Scholars debate the concept’s validity, but we can see something like it at work in the Republican Party.
Even before Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election, Ron DeSantis’ star was rising, as Republicans, many independents, and disaffected Democrats praised the governor for his measured response to the pandemic and his adamant opposition to business shutdowns, school closures, and mask mandates. DeSantis took a lot of heat for his pandemic stance, with the national media showering him in scorn, but he stuck to his guns, and time vindicated his approach. He was also proactive in preventing the wave of rioting that started in Minneapolis from spreading to Florida. Cities burned from coast to coast, but Jacksonville, Tampa, and Miami were not among them.
After Trump left office, DeSantis continued to rack up policy wins. Among them were an anti-rioting bill, a proactive ban on vaccine passports, and more recently, a ban on teaching gender ideology in Florida’s elementary schools. When Disney attempted to counter the latter, DeSantis stripped it of its self-governing status. Other fights over Critical Race Theory, big tech, ESG in corporations, and election integrity cemented his status as the right’s favorite governor. Yet, for all of these conservative victories, DeSantis also governed from the center. He raised teacher pay, invested in education, and pushed environmental initiatives, while showing off his emergency management skills. His ability to attract consistent support from both his party’s base and the center is a rare feat in politics.
The results came home to roost on November 8th. DeSantis was reelected in Florida’s biggest landslide since 1982, winning the large South Florida Democratic strongholds of Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Counties by 11 and 3 points, respectively. DeSantis won the Hispanic and suburban vote by decisive margins while improving on Trump’s gains among rural and working class voters. DeSantis did so well that he held his opponent, Charlie Crist, to only five counties. In some of the most stunning results, DeSantis even managed to win young voters and those with postgraduate degrees. DeSantis outperformed Trump in every county.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump remained at the heart of the party machinery in 2021 and 2022. Even though his influence slowly diminished when out of office, he still commanded the heights of the small donor donations, sucking up money that could have gone to other candidates. His presence served as a talisman for some Republicans and a lightning rod for Democrats, giving him attention and power through agenda setting despite his lack of office. Most importantly, his voice still took an outsized role in Republican primaries. His endorsement often proved the decisive factor for those seeking the party’s nomination, but not always. Sometimes, he simply swooped in and endorsed a candidate who was already on track to win, most infamously Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania.
Unfortunately for the former President, almost all of his high-profile endorsements lost in the 2022 midterm elections, with only JD Vance, Ted Budd, and Joe Lombardo prevailing, and the latter two were consensus candidates.
The overwhelming pattern of last week’s elections was that Republicans who focused their campaigns on issues like the economy, crime, the border, and education overperformed or won, sometimes in landslides. Candidates who got too close to Trump and prioritized his concerns, which were overwhelmingly about questioning and relitigating the 2020 election, underperformed or lost. Some Republican candidates only focused on 2020 theories in their primaries and not the general election campaign, but the voters still remembered and said “no, thank you.”
Donald Trump will reportedly announce his third presidential campaign tonight. If not now, it will likely come soon. However, it comes with him in a far poorer position than a week ago. A slate of post-election polls now show DeSantis leading Trump by 11 points in Iowa, 15 points in New Hampshire, 26 points in Florida, and 20 points in Georgia. Meanwhile, another shows DeSantis leading Trump by 11 in Texas. Some of that margin is undoubtedly response bias, but the numbers nevertheless illustrate that the balance of power between Trump and DeSantis has shifted tectonically.
That Trump intends to announce so soon and is making specific threats to deter DeSantis indicates his desire to maintain his status as the Republican Party’s ruling power. His capability to do so, however, is now greatly in question.
DeSantis’ 2024 intentions remain unknown, but anxious eyes will be watching him for many months starting now. His victory speech looked and sounded like it was made for a national audience. National Republicans will hope that it was, for the results of the midterms make one thing fairly clear: Donald Trump is toxic to independent and suburban voters and if Ron DeSantis (or a less likely rising star) does not displace him as the ruling power in the Republican Party, it may be looking at a world in which blue Texas finally becomes a reality in 2024. If a “civil war” in the party is necessary to prevent that outcome, so be it.
Spring the Republican Party’s Thucydides Trap.