A Smart Republican Party Would Hire Lee Zeldin as RNC Chair
A Smart Republican Party Would Hire Lee Zeldin as RNC Chair
The Republican Party has many things to fix if it wants to win in 2024. It starts by firing Ronna McDaniel.
It’s the middle of November, 2022, and the red tsunami is still nowhere to be found. Indeed, the waters only get lower the more the votes come in. The Republican Party will almost certainly reclaim the House of Representatives, but only with the barest majority, perhaps even smaller than the one Democrats enjoyed during Biden’s first two years. Meanwhile, the Senate is gone. At best, it will be a 50/50 Chamber once again. This result is more than disappointing. It is disastrous. That this midterm election was opposed to an extraordinarily unpopular President makes the result even more baffling. Clearly, many things need to change in the Republican Party by 2024 if it hopes to regain power. Among the foremost of the needed changes is in the party’s leadership. Put simply, the entire slate needs cleaning. This changing of the guard cannot be done easily or overnight, but one move should be relatively simple: Ronna McDaniel, the current Republican National Committee chair, should be fired. Lee Zeldin, who fell just shy of a stunning upset in New York, should replace her.
Usually sapphire New York was one of the few bright spots for Republicans last Tuesday. In one of the biggest surprises of the night, a legitimate red wave did appear in the Empire State, with Lee Zeldin surfing at the top of a ticket that flipped four of New York’s House seats, including that of DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney. Those flips may well make the difference for Republicans in regaining the House majority. In other words, whoever becomes the next House Speaker (Kevin McCarthy is not yet a lock) can thank Lee Zeldin for the gavel.
Zeldin lost his own race, but he sent shivers down the spines of New York Democrats, coming the closest to a Republican statewide win since George Pataki’s 2002 reelection. Zeldin’s performance was impressive to say the least. A small amount of the ballots remain outstanding, but we can list some incredible achievements:
Winning 30% of New York City’s vote, including 66% in Staten Island and 37% in Queens.
Winning about 40% in Westchester County, a nine point improvement over Trump.
Winning Nassau County by 11 points (55.3 to 44.7%).
Winning Suffolk County by 17 points (58.6 to 41.4%).
Winning Rockland County by 12.4 points (56.2 to 43.8%).
Losing Erie County, Hochul’s home, by only six points (53 to 47%).
Impressive performances in New York’s rural counties, winning 60-80% in many of them. Future candidates have room for growth.
(Source: Politico)
Zeldin’s impressive performance goes beyond these numbers. He did exceedingly well with New York City’s Orthodox Jewish and Asian communities. The one precinct he won in Manhattan was in Chinatown, and while the city’s Orthodox Jews have often supported Republican candidates, Zeldin got unusually high turnout from them. Latinos also continued their rightward drift, helping Zeldin run up his margins on Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk Counties).
Zeldin ran on salient issues for New Yorkers. Rising crime stood at the center of his campaign, but his appeals on the economy, education, and New York’s restrictive covid mandates, especially on children, resonated with a broad coalition. Zeldin’s appeal can best be summed up in three sentences from his sole debate with Kathy Hochul:
"Why does New York lead the entire nation in population loss? Because their wallets, their safety, their freedom, and the quality of their kids' education are under attack, so they’re hitting their breaking point. … We need balance and common sense restored to Albany."
But Zeldin’s effectiveness went beyond his messaging. Crucially, his campaign organization was also a success. New York first implemented a 10-day early voting period in 2019. Unlike Republicans in other states, the Zeldin campaign and the entire Republican ticket encouraged and engaged its voters at all stages of early voting, instead of relying on an Election Day surge. The preliminary turnout results suggest that Zeldin was far better at getting his voters out than Hochul and Democrats were. Zeldin’s campaign helped engage 48.95% of registered voters on Long Island. In contrast only 32.89% of registered voters in New York City turned out, the lowest share of the state.
Most of the regions swung significantly to the right, the exceptions being in the Hudson Valley and Capital Region.
The sheer number of votes in New York City ultimately meant that this was not enough for Zeldin to prevail, but he resoundingly demonstrated an ability to turn out his base at all stages of the early voting process, adapting to the changes in voting patterns instead of complaining about them.
That brings us to Ronna McDaniel. Since becoming RNC Chair, Republicans have lost elections in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Although Republicans picked up Senate seats in 2018 and did unexpectedly well in the House in 2020, the party was clearly caught off guard by the changes to voting procedures. There is no indication that Republicans have done much to remedy that situation since. Once again, national Republicans relied on an Election Day surge to cover the deficit in early voting, and while Republicans have always tended to vote disproportionately on Election Day, this lack of preparedness clearly created the exact same problems in certain states that plagued the party in 2020.
If mail and early voting exist, Republicans will simply need to adapt and engage in that process. Lee Zeldin has demonstrated an ability to do so. He has equally demonstrated the ability to reach urban, rural, working class, Hispanic, and Asian voters while maintaining solid support in the suburbs Republicans need to stay competitive in. His commanding victory on Long Island and respectable showing in Westchester prove his prowess.
Meanwhile, suburbs nationwide continued to erode under Ronna McDaniel’s leadership. Apparently, simply shouting “Bidenflation” and relying on Democratic incompetence wasn’t enough. Her inability to adapt to voting changes, create a compelling message for a broad coalition, and prevent the selection of the terrible candidates that cost Republicans the Senate and many governorships, such as Doug Mastriano, Tudor Dixon, and Blake Masters, should be enough to give her the thumbs-down.
The Republican Party needs to get its act together if it hopes to prevail in 2024. It will not without accountability. Two days after the disappointment, Ronna McDaniel nevertheless insisted the situation was a success, claiming
"We never used the word 'red wave' at the RNC...the wave did happen because we are waving goodbye to Speaker Nancy Pelosi."
No one will buy such spin. The red puddle proved that new leadership atop the GOP is desperately needed. New leadership and true accountability means replacing multiple entrenched individuals, which will take time and effort. However, if the Republican Party wants to win back the White House and Senate in 2024, waving goodbye to Ronna McDaniel would be a good start. Lee Zeldin should be hired in her place without delay.